Kalshi break-even calculator
Pick a contract price. See the fee Kalshi charges, the hit rate you need just to break even, and what a trade actually costs, risks and pays.
How the math works
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if you are right and $0 if you are wrong, so at price P your gain is 1 โ P and your loss is P. Kalshi's trading fee is 0.07 ร P ร (1 โ P) per contract, largest around 50ยข (about 1.75ยข) and near zero at the extremes. Break-even hit rate is simply P + fee: at 55ยข you need to be right 56.7% of the time. The last card shows how much better than the market's own odds you have to be, which is the only number that decides whether a strategy makes money.
DirectionalBot does this math on every contract before it enters, on your own Kalshi account.
Free 1-hour trial, no card. Paper mode if you'd rather watch first.