Home › Data › BNB

Kalshi BNB 15-minute market: this week's numbers

BNB up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 87 windows · Up 61% · median move 10.1 bps · biggest 0.49%
Last 7 days: 611 windows · Up 53% · median move 8.0 bps (90th percentile 25) · biggest 2.13% at Thu 11:15am · coin-flips 13% · wildest hour 22:00 ET (12 bps) · calmest 16:00 (5 bps) · longest same-outcome run 8

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 2:00pm: +14.4 bpsThu 2:30pm: +24.0 bpsThu 2:45pm: -19.1 bpsThu 3:00pm: -1.2 bpsThu 3:15pm: +21.2 bpsThu 3:30pm: +14.7 bpsThu 3:45pm: -11.1 bpsThu 4:00pm: +21.9 bpsThu 4:15pm: +7.4 bpsThu 4:30pm: +4.6 bpsThu 4:45pm: +1.5 bpsThu 5:00pm: -7.4 bpsThu 5:15pm: -9.7 bpsThu 5:30pm: -3.8 bpsThu 5:45pm: +12.8 bpsThu 6:00pm: +10.3 bpsThu 6:15pm: +5.4 bpsThu 6:30pm: +8.6 bpsThu 6:45pm: -1.5 bpsThu 7:00pm: +10.0 bpsThu 7:15pm: -3.3 bpsThu 7:30pm: +0.5 bpsThu 7:45pm: -37.1 bpsThu 8:00pm: +16.6 bpsThu 8:15pm: -16.6 bpsThu 8:30pm: -3.3 bpsThu 8:45pm: -17.9 bpsThu 9:00pm: -13.2 bpsThu 9:15pm: +16.3 bpsThu 9:30pm: +4.8 bpsThu 9:45pm: +4.5 bpsThu 10:00pm: -4.5 bpsThu 10:15pm: -21.0 bpsThu 10:30pm: +25.8 bpsThu 10:45pm: +25.3 bpsThu 11:00pm: -34.9 bpsThu 11:15pm: +28.5 bpsThu 11:30pm: +1.1 bpsThu 11:45pm: +2.7 bpsFri 12:30am: -13.5 bpsFri 12:45am: -20.4 bpsFri 1:00am: +13.6 bpsFri 1:15am: +24.3 bpsFri 1:30am: -2.6 bpsFri 1:45am: -17.8 bpsFri 2:00am: +6.9 bpsFri 2:15am: -5.9 bpsFri 2:30am: +3.5 bpsFri 2:45am: -3.0 bpsFri 3:00am: -14.8 bpsFri 3:15am: +8.4 bpsFri 3:30am: +9.1 bpsFri 3:45am: +4.0 bpsFri 4:00am: -13.3 bpsFri 4:15am: -28.6 bpsFri 4:30am: -2.4 bpsFri 4:45am: +8.8 bpsFri 5:00am: -20.0 bpsFri 5:30am: -7.5 bpsFri 5:45am: +7.4 bpsFri 6:00am: +3.4 bpsFri 6:15am: -4.6 bpsFri 6:30am: -21.7 bpsFri 6:45am: -2.6 bpsFri 7:00am: -27.2 bpsFri 7:15am: +0.1 bpsFri 7:30am: +21.1 bpsFri 7:45am: +16.9 bpsFri 8:00am: +8.9 bpsFri 8:15am: -31.7 bpsFri 8:30am: -10.6 bpsFri 8:45am: +0.1 bpsFri 9:00am: +5.4 bpsFri 9:15am: -10.8 bpsFri 9:30am: -49.2 bpsFri 9:45am: +13.1 bpsFri 10:00am: -1.6 bpsFri 10:15am: +27.1 bpsFri 10:45am: -3.1 bpsFri 11:00am: -31.3 bpsFri 11:15am: -2.2 bpsFri 11:30am: +18.3 bpsFri 11:45am: -5.8 bpsFri 12:00pm: +15.1 bpsFri 12:15pm: -27.6 bpsFri 12:30pm: -7.0 bpsFri 12:45pm: +10.1 bps
Last 87 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/023954%5.11.15%
Sat 10/038856%6.81.24%
Sun 10/048953%7.90.83%
Mon 10/059044%7.90.36%
Tue 10/069051%6.90.93%
Wed 10/078952%9.20.63%
Thu 10/087860%12.62.13%
Fri 10/094852%9.60.49%

By hour of day

00
8		01
12		02
6		03
9		04
8		05
8		06
10		07
7		08
7		09
11		10
9		11
9		12
9		13
8		14
8		15
8		16
5		17
8		18
5		19
6		20
8		21
12		22
12		23
7
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median BNB window moves 8 bps from strike to close, and 13% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

DirectionalBot watches every one of these windows, on your own Kalshi account.
Free 1-hour trial, no card. Paper mode if you'd rather watch first.

Open the bot on Telegram →