Home › Data › ETH

Kalshi ETH 15-minute market: this week's numbers

Ethereum up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 92 windows · Up 55% · median move 10.6 bps · biggest 1.00%
Last 7 days: 629 windows · Up 49% · median move 7.6 bps (90th percentile 27) · biggest 1.95% at Tue 10:00pm · coin-flips 16% · wildest hour 10:00 ET (11 bps) · calmest 18:00 (3 bps) · longest same-outcome run 10

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 1:15pm: -30.3 bpsThu 1:45pm: -19.4 bpsThu 2:00pm: -1.0 bpsThu 2:15pm: +100.4 bpsThu 2:30pm: +35.2 bpsThu 2:45pm: -4.3 bpsThu 3:00pm: +13.6 bpsThu 3:15pm: +18.2 bpsThu 3:30pm: +21.0 bpsThu 3:45pm: +8.0 bpsThu 4:00pm: +28.3 bpsThu 4:15pm: -8.5 bpsThu 4:30pm: +8.6 bpsThu 4:45pm: +8.7 bpsThu 5:00pm: -8.2 bpsThu 5:15pm: +6.0 bpsThu 5:30pm: -4.5 bpsThu 5:45pm: +11.9 bpsThu 6:00pm: +1.7 bpsThu 6:15pm: -24.0 bpsThu 6:30pm: +4.3 bpsThu 6:45pm: +1.6 bpsThu 7:00pm: +2.1 bpsThu 7:15pm: +9.0 bpsThu 7:30pm: -11.9 bpsThu 7:45pm: -3.2 bpsThu 8:00pm: +22.4 bpsThu 8:15pm: -5.0 bpsThu 8:30pm: +11.3 bpsThu 8:45pm: -8.8 bpsThu 9:00pm: -8.4 bpsThu 9:15pm: +17.1 bpsThu 9:30pm: +18.6 bpsThu 9:45pm: -8.8 bpsThu 10:00pm: +1.6 bpsThu 10:15pm: -16.5 bpsThu 10:30pm: +28.1 bpsThu 10:45pm: +15.3 bpsThu 11:00pm: -17.3 bpsThu 11:15pm: +15.8 bpsThu 11:30pm: +14.5 bpsThu 11:45pm: +6.8 bpsFri 12:00am: +9.8 bpsFri 12:15am: -9.3 bpsFri 12:30am: -11.1 bpsFri 12:45am: -13.3 bpsFri 1:00am: +16.7 bpsFri 1:15am: +21.4 bpsFri 1:30am: -1.4 bpsFri 1:45am: -19.2 bpsFri 2:00am: +20.7 bpsFri 2:15am: +9.6 bpsFri 2:30am: +5.9 bpsFri 2:45am: +1.3 bpsFri 3:00am: -3.2 bpsFri 3:15am: +12.7 bpsFri 3:30am: +12.3 bpsFri 3:45am: +3.2 bpsFri 4:00am: +3.3 bpsFri 4:15am: -22.4 bpsFri 4:30am: -7.0 bpsFri 4:45am: +29.7 bpsFri 5:00am: -13.1 bpsFri 5:30am: -7.7 bpsFri 5:45am: -4.4 bpsFri 6:00am: -5.8 bpsFri 6:15am: -6.0 bpsFri 6:30am: -22.1 bpsFri 6:45am: -0.8 bpsFri 7:00am: -9.9 bpsFri 7:15am: +12.7 bpsFri 7:30am: +32.2 bpsFri 7:45am: +19.4 bpsFri 8:00am: +3.2 bpsFri 8:15am: -17.9 bpsFri 8:30am: -20.7 bpsFri 8:45am: +10.3 bpsFri 9:00am: +4.0 bpsFri 9:15am: -13.2 bpsFri 9:30am: -44.4 bpsFri 9:45am: -2.0 bpsFri 10:00am: +1.5 bpsFri 10:15am: +39.8 bpsFri 10:45am: +0.2 bpsFri 11:00am: -25.8 bpsFri 11:15am: +3.3 bpsFri 11:30am: +10.9 bpsFri 11:45am: -4.8 bpsFri 12:00pm: +28.2 bpsFri 12:15pm: -19.9 bpsFri 12:30pm: -3.8 bpsFri 12:45pm: +12.8 bps
Last 92 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/024151%7.30.82%
Sat 10/039054%3.60.25%
Sun 10/049147%5.40.65%
Mon 10/059141%8.30.51%
Tue 10/069050%7.81.95%
Wed 10/079248%10.80.50%
Thu 10/088450%14.01.87%
Fri 10/095050%10.60.44%

By hour of day

00
8		01
8		02
9		03
7		04
8		05
7		06
7		07
10		08
9		09
10		10
11		11
10		12
10		13
7		14
6		15
5		16
8		17
6		18
3		19
5		20
8		21
9		22
8		23
7
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median ETH window moves 8 bps from strike to close, and 16% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

DirectionalBot watches every one of these windows, on your own Kalshi account.
Free 1-hour trial, no card. Paper mode if you'd rather watch first.

Open the bot on Telegram →