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Kalshi DOGE 15-minute market: this week's numbers

Dogecoin up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 92 windows · Up 57% · median move 12.9 bps · biggest 1.12%
Last 7 days: 625 windows · Up 50% · median move 12.4 bps (90th percentile 38) · biggest 3.09% at Thu 11:15am · coin-flips 8% · wildest hour 10:00 ET (22 bps) · calmest 06:00 (8 bps) · longest same-outcome run 8

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 1:15pm: -53.1 bpsThu 1:45pm: -43.3 bpsThu 2:00pm: +54.2 bpsThu 2:15pm: +111.5 bpsThu 2:30pm: +20.1 bpsThu 2:45pm: +4.0 bpsThu 3:00pm: +19.3 bpsThu 3:15pm: +20.9 bpsThu 3:30pm: +31.7 bpsThu 3:45pm: -6.1 bpsThu 4:00pm: +36.8 bpsThu 4:15pm: +29.3 bpsThu 4:30pm: +11.3 bpsThu 4:45pm: -6.2 bpsThu 5:00pm: -2.5 bpsThu 5:15pm: -2.6 bpsThu 5:30pm: -11.5 bpsThu 5:45pm: +16.8 bpsThu 6:00pm: +22.7 bpsThu 6:15pm: -19.1 bpsThu 6:30pm: +16.7 bpsThu 6:45pm: -1.5 bpsThu 7:00pm: +9.1 bpsThu 7:15pm: -1.5 bpsThu 7:30pm: -9.7 bpsThu 7:45pm: -54.1 bpsThu 8:00pm: +26.3 bpsThu 8:15pm: -7.5 bpsThu 8:30pm: +12.4 bpsThu 8:45pm: -0.5 bpsThu 9:00pm: -1.9 bpsThu 9:15pm: +37.9 bpsThu 9:30pm: +30.4 bpsThu 9:45pm: -21.4 bpsThu 10:00pm: -17.2 bpsThu 10:15pm: -18.0 bpsThu 10:30pm: +12.7 bpsThu 10:45pm: +10.8 bpsThu 11:00pm: +2.5 bpsThu 11:15pm: +21.3 bpsThu 11:30pm: +7.7 bpsThu 11:45pm: +10.2 bpsFri 12:00am: +9.0 bpsFri 12:15am: -4.5 bpsFri 12:30am: -27.4 bpsFri 12:45am: +0.6 bpsFri 1:00am: +21.9 bpsFri 1:15am: +37.3 bpsFri 1:30am: +1.9 bpsFri 1:45am: -26.1 bpsFri 2:00am: +14.2 bpsFri 2:15am: -7.2 bpsFri 2:30am: +12.7 bpsFri 2:45am: -8.3 bpsFri 3:00am: -20.6 bpsFri 3:15am: +2.4 bpsFri 3:30am: -1.4 bpsFri 3:45am: +6.6 bpsFri 4:00am: +5.1 bpsFri 4:15am: -27.5 bpsFri 4:30am: -3.3 bpsFri 4:45am: +14.3 bpsFri 5:00am: -32.7 bpsFri 5:30am: -0.9 bpsFri 5:45am: +4.0 bpsFri 6:00am: -11.9 bpsFri 6:15am: -9.0 bpsFri 6:30am: -74.1 bpsFri 6:45am: +2.2 bpsFri 7:00am: -2.1 bpsFri 7:15am: +20.2 bpsFri 7:30am: +59.8 bpsFri 7:45am: +1.4 bpsFri 8:00am: +15.2 bpsFri 8:15am: -29.7 bpsFri 8:30am: -31.3 bpsFri 8:45am: +13.1 bpsFri 9:00am: +5.1 bpsFri 9:15am: -6.8 bpsFri 9:30am: -48.1 bpsFri 9:45am: +14.4 bpsFri 10:00am: +5.7 bpsFri 10:15am: +48.2 bpsFri 10:45am: +2.2 bpsFri 11:00am: -43.1 bpsFri 11:15am: +1.2 bpsFri 11:30am: +29.8 bpsFri 11:45am: +3.9 bpsFri 12:00pm: +28.1 bpsFri 12:15pm: -15.8 bpsFri 12:30pm: -11.1 bpsFri 12:45pm: +17.5 bps
Last 92 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/024154%13.52.53%
Sat 10/039047%6.60.39%
Sun 10/049157%10.80.72%
Mon 10/059246%15.30.79%
Tue 10/068849%12.52.10%
Wed 10/079147%15.30.58%
Thu 10/088250%18.53.09%
Fri 10/095058%12.30.74%

By hour of day

00
9		01
16		02
11		03
12		04
9		05
12		06
8		07
17		08
12		09
15		10
22		11
17		12
13		13
15		14
15		15
15		16
11		17
15		18
11		19
12		20
12		21
16		22
14		23
10
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median DOGE window moves 12 bps from strike to close, and 8% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

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