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Kalshi XRP 15-minute market: this week's numbers

XRP up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 90 windows · Up 57% · median move 16.6 bps · biggest 1.49%
Last 7 days: 615 windows · Up 51% · median move 11.8 bps (90th percentile 36) · biggest 2.34% at Thu 11:15am · coin-flips 10% · wildest hour 10:00 ET (22 bps) · calmest 23:00 (6 bps) · longest same-outcome run 7

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 1:15pm: -99.0 bpsThu 2:00pm: +68.0 bpsThu 2:15pm: +148.7 bpsThu 2:30pm: +66.9 bpsThu 2:45pm: -23.7 bpsThu 3:00pm: +23.0 bpsThu 3:15pm: +26.7 bpsThu 3:30pm: +36.6 bpsThu 3:45pm: -5.1 bpsThu 4:00pm: +25.4 bpsThu 4:15pm: +4.2 bpsThu 4:30pm: -2.5 bpsThu 4:45pm: -3.8 bpsThu 5:00pm: -7.0 bpsThu 5:15pm: -1.7 bpsThu 5:30pm: -24.4 bpsThu 5:45pm: +0.5 bpsThu 6:00pm: +27.4 bpsThu 6:15pm: -10.8 bpsThu 6:30pm: +14.9 bpsThu 6:45pm: -1.4 bpsThu 7:00pm: +11.3 bpsThu 7:15pm: +16.7 bpsThu 7:30pm: -22.6 bpsThu 7:45pm: -36.5 bpsThu 8:00pm: +43.8 bpsThu 8:15pm: -7.6 bpsThu 8:30pm: +19.5 bpsThu 8:45pm: -6.0 bpsThu 9:00pm: -9.7 bpsThu 9:15pm: +12.4 bpsThu 9:30pm: +34.9 bpsThu 9:45pm: -32.2 bpsThu 10:00pm: -16.6 bpsThu 10:15pm: -21.6 bpsThu 10:30pm: +20.6 bpsThu 10:45pm: +15.3 bpsThu 11:00pm: -8.1 bpsThu 11:15pm: -3.1 bpsThu 11:30pm: +20.1 bpsThu 11:45pm: +2.4 bpsFri 12:15am: -19.8 bpsFri 12:30am: -21.3 bpsFri 12:45am: -12.1 bpsFri 1:00am: +18.3 bpsFri 1:15am: +28.2 bpsFri 1:30am: +1.6 bpsFri 1:45am: -23.1 bpsFri 2:00am: +19.8 bpsFri 2:15am: -1.6 bpsFri 2:30am: +18.8 bpsFri 2:45am: -14.4 bpsFri 3:00am: -8.6 bpsFri 3:15am: +9.1 bpsFri 3:30am: +11.0 bpsFri 3:45am: +8.8 bpsFri 4:00am: +5.0 bpsFri 4:15am: -31.5 bpsFri 4:30am: +3.6 bpsFri 4:45am: +11.0 bpsFri 5:00am: -30.3 bpsFri 5:30am: -5.3 bpsFri 5:45am: +4.8 bpsFri 6:00am: -9.4 bpsFri 6:15am: +10.9 bpsFri 6:30am: -81.0 bpsFri 6:45am: -17.2 bpsFri 7:00am: +4.3 bpsFri 7:15am: +4.7 bpsFri 7:30am: +57.9 bpsFri 7:45am: +37.3 bpsFri 8:00am: -17.7 bpsFri 8:15am: -35.9 bpsFri 8:30am: -40.8 bpsFri 8:45am: +10.1 bpsFri 9:00am: -5.2 bpsFri 9:15am: -20.0 bpsFri 9:30am: -61.0 bpsFri 9:45am: -2.9 bpsFri 10:00am: +10.1 bpsFri 10:15am: +50.1 bpsFri 10:45am: -0.5 bpsFri 11:00am: -39.6 bpsFri 11:15am: -5.2 bpsFri 11:30am: +24.0 bpsFri 11:45am: -10.1 bpsFri 12:00pm: +18.2 bpsFri 12:15pm: -25.3 bpsFri 12:30pm: -5.4 bpsFri 12:45pm: +24.8 bps
Last 90 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/024062%12.11.92%
Sat 10/038752%6.20.25%
Sun 10/049050%10.30.86%
Mon 10/059047%13.80.63%
Tue 10/068953%9.51.45%
Wed 10/078946%13.50.82%
Thu 10/088154%20.62.34%
Fri 10/094953%14.40.81%

By hour of day

00
11		01
17		02
14		03
15		04
10		05
10		06
12		07
13		08
11		09
19		10
22		11
17		12
13		13
12		14
10		15
10		16
7		17
7		18
12		19
11		20
10		21
14		22
14		23
6
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median XRP window moves 12 bps from strike to close, and 10% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

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