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Kalshi SOL 15-minute market: this week's numbers

Solana up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 90 windows · Up 58% · median move 16.9 bps · biggest 1.36%
Last 7 days: 612 windows · Up 52% · median move 11.8 bps (90th percentile 33) · biggest 2.04% at Thu 11:15am · coin-flips 9% · wildest hour 10:00 ET (21 bps) · calmest 19:00 (8 bps) · longest same-outcome run 11

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 1:15pm: -101.1 bpsThu 2:00pm: +15.7 bpsThu 2:15pm: +136.3 bpsThu 2:30pm: +12.1 bpsThu 2:45pm: +9.4 bpsThu 3:00pm: +49.1 bpsThu 3:15pm: +32.4 bpsThu 3:30pm: +9.7 bpsThu 3:45pm: +7.7 bpsThu 4:00pm: +29.7 bpsThu 4:15pm: -3.0 bpsThu 4:30pm: +21.8 bpsThu 4:45pm: +14.1 bpsThu 5:00pm: +7.7 bpsThu 5:15pm: +3.9 bpsThu 5:30pm: +2.2 bpsThu 5:45pm: +50.1 bpsThu 6:00pm: -2.9 bpsThu 6:15pm: -30.3 bpsThu 6:30pm: +20.6 bpsThu 6:45pm: -12.2 bpsThu 7:00pm: -1.2 bpsThu 7:15pm: +8.7 bpsThu 7:30pm: -31.4 bpsThu 7:45pm: -43.0 bpsThu 8:00pm: +9.3 bpsThu 8:15pm: -60.1 bpsThu 8:30pm: +17.1 bpsThu 8:45pm: +4.4 bpsThu 9:00pm: -27.3 bpsThu 9:15pm: +25.8 bpsThu 9:30pm: +22.7 bpsThu 9:45pm: -7.9 bpsThu 10:00pm: +20.8 bpsThu 10:15pm: +0.4 bpsThu 10:30pm: +34.1 bpsThu 10:45pm: +27.0 bpsThu 11:00pm: -30.4 bpsThu 11:15pm: +15.5 bpsThu 11:30pm: +3.4 bpsThu 11:45pm: +24.8 bpsFri 12:15am: -10.1 bpsFri 12:30am: -38.1 bpsFri 12:45am: -15.0 bpsFri 1:00am: +40.3 bpsFri 1:15am: +20.2 bpsFri 1:30am: +3.4 bpsFri 1:45am: -26.7 bpsFri 2:00am: +18.3 bpsFri 2:15am: -0.2 bpsFri 2:30am: +25.2 bpsFri 2:45am: -8.6 bpsFri 3:00am: -26.1 bpsFri 3:15am: +14.4 bpsFri 3:30am: +7.3 bpsFri 3:45am: +4.8 bpsFri 4:00am: -8.9 bpsFri 4:15am: -36.7 bpsFri 4:30am: -2.6 bpsFri 4:45am: +35.5 bpsFri 5:00am: -23.8 bpsFri 5:30am: -16.2 bpsFri 5:45am: +2.9 bpsFri 6:00am: +6.2 bpsFri 6:15am: -10.9 bpsFri 6:30am: -59.3 bpsFri 6:45am: +8.0 bpsFri 7:00am: +6.3 bpsFri 7:15am: +28.3 bpsFri 7:30am: +68.0 bpsFri 7:45am: +33.6 bpsFri 8:00am: -22.5 bpsFri 8:15am: -39.8 bpsFri 8:30am: -29.3 bpsFri 8:45am: +18.8 bpsFri 9:00am: -0.9 bpsFri 9:15am: -11.1 bpsFri 9:30am: -69.8 bpsFri 9:45am: +14.9 bpsFri 10:00am: +13.2 bpsFri 10:15am: +68.3 bpsFri 10:45am: +1.0 bpsFri 11:00am: -63.6 bpsFri 11:15am: -10.6 bpsFri 11:30am: +34.5 bpsFri 11:45am: -10.3 bpsFri 12:00pm: +16.6 bpsFri 12:15pm: -33.5 bpsFri 12:30pm: +0.6 bpsFri 12:45pm: +25.0 bps
Last 90 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/023959%12.21.16%
Sat 10/038753%7.30.44%
Sun 10/048954%10.40.63%
Mon 10/059046%13.60.69%
Tue 10/068857%12.51.29%
Wed 10/078949%12.50.85%
Thu 10/088153%21.82.04%
Fri 10/094949%16.60.70%

By hour of day

00
12		01
16		02
14		03
11		04
9		05
11		06
11		07
11		08
14		09
11		10
21		11
11		12
14		13
12		14
9		15
10		16
11		17
8		18
13		19
8		20
11		21
11		22
16		23
13
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median SOL window moves 12 bps from strike to close, and 9% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

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